Ireland’s government in 2016: bring home at least 70k emigrants. In five years 141.8k citizens arrived
Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny)11 May 2016 · A Programme for a Partnership Government
«Facilitate the return of at least 70,000 emigrants»
In the five years to April 2021, 141,800 Irish citizens moved to Ireland; about 139,000 left over the same period.
Fact: CSO, PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by nationality
The goal was passed in three years: 82.7k by April 2019. But over the same five years about 139k citizens left, so their number in the country hardly grew.
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After the 2008 crisis many young people left Ireland. The government promised to help at least 70,000 of them return. Here is how many Irish citizens moved into the country from 2016.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Government of Ireland (Fine Gael and independents, Enda Kenny), A Programme for a Partnership Government quote
«Facilitate the return of at least 70,000 emigrants»
- What happened exceeded
In the five years to April 2021, 141,800 Irish citizens moved to Ireland; about 139,000 left over the same period.
CSO, PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by nationality
Quote: the 2016 «Programme for a Partnership Government», jobs section (p. 35). Fact: Ireland’s Central Statistics Office, table PEA17: immigrants with Irish citizenship in the year to April, summed from May 2016. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The quote names no year; the end of the government’s term, 2021, is used. The statistics count everyone arriving with Irish citizenship, including some who had never lived in Ireland. Citizens left at 22,000–31,000 a year over those years (table PEA16).
A question for this picture
What counts as emigrants coming back, if as many citizens left over the same years?