Iran: 5 downturns since 2012; the IMF expected none a year ahead
Iran, real GDP, 2012–2025
Every time it expected growth, +3.0% on average. The widest gap: 2018, expected +4.3%, outcome −3.7%.
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GDP growth is how much the volume of everything a country’s economy produced changed in a year, net of price rises. Below zero, the economy shrank. Every April the IMF forecasts the next year; here that forecast is set against what happened.
Blue: GDP growth in the IMF’s latest data, dots mark the years of decline. Orange: what the IMF expected for each year in the April before. The dashed line is zero: below it the economy shrinks.
- 2012: forecast in April 2011 → latest data
+3.0% → −3.7%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2011 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2013: forecast in April 2012 → latest data
+1.3% → −1.5%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2012 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2015: forecast in April 2014 → latest data
+2.4% → −1.4%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2018: forecast in April 2017 → latest data
+4.3% → −3.7%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2017 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- 2019: forecast in April 2018 → latest data
+4.0% → −2.4%
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2018 → IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
A downturn is a year when a country’s real GDP fell (growth below −0.05%, i.e. −0.1% or less once rounded) in the IMF’s latest data (April 2026). The forecast is the April World Economic Outlook of the year before; “expected a fall” means forecast growth below zero. Countries and years 2008–2025 with both a forecast and an outcome.
A year-ahead forecast almost always shows growth: downturns usually come from events not visible a year earlier (crises, commodity price crashes, wars, the pandemic). The IMF will still revise recent outcomes.
A question for this picture
What do these downturns have in common, and could any of them have been seen a year ahead?