China and Iran: almost equal fertility in 2010 (1.69 and 1.75 children per woman); by 2023, 1.00 and 1.70
GDP per person: China — rose 2.2-fold, Iran — rose by 8%. Internet users: China — 91% of residents (34% in 2010), Iran — 84% (16%). The same start did not mean the same path.
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Two countries had nearly the same number of children per woman in 2010. Fertility, GDP per person and internet use then took different paths. These are changes of the same years, not causes.
Two annual lines of children per woman on a shared scale, in the order of the countries in the headline.
- China: Total fertility rate children per woman
1.687 (2010) → 1 (2023)
- China: GDP per capita, PPP constant 2021 international $
10,476.1526 (2010) → 22,687.252 (2023)
- China: Internet users % of population
34.3 (2010) → 90.6 (2023)
- Iran: Total fertility rate children per woman
1.749 (2010) → 1.695 (2023)
- Iran: GDP per capita, PPP constant 2021 international $
15,729.9132 (2010) → 17,044.8173 (2023)
- Iran: Internet users % of population
15.9 (2010) → 83.7105 (2023)
Pairs start in 2010 with a difference of at most 0.12 children per woman and share the latest year up to 2023; both ends of each fertility series come from the same source. The final gap is at least 0.6, the GDP growth gap at least 20 percentage points and the internet gap at least 10 points. Countries have at least one million people, and at least one of the two publishes national birth statistics. Pairs go from the largest combined gaps down; each country appears once. No fitted model.
Only starting fertility was matched. The countries are not assumed to be alike in income, institutions or age structure.
A question for this picture
What else set these two countries apart?