Cyprus: 8 years in a row, inflation below the European Commission’s forecast
Cyprus: inflation, 2013–2020
2013–2020: every year both next-year forecasts (spring and autumn) missed the same way, by 1.4 percentage points on average.
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Twice a year, in spring and autumn, the European Commission forecasts every EU country for this year and the next. Here: the next-year forecasts against the outcome in the latest data.
By target year: blue, the last forecast for that year; orange, the outcome. The shading is the error; all these years it stays on one side.
- May 2012 forecast for 2013
2.5% → 0.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2012 forecast for 2013
1.5% → 0.4%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- March 2013 forecast for 2014
1.4% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2013 forecast for 2014
1.2% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2013 forecast for 2014
1.2% → −0.3%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2014 forecast for 2015
1.4% → −1.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2014 forecast for 2015
1.4% → −1.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2014 forecast for 2015
0.7% → −1.6%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2015 forecast for 2016
1.2% → −1.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2015 forecast for 2016
0.9% → −1.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2015 forecast for 2016
0.6% → −1.2%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2016 forecast for 2017
1.3% → 0.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2016 forecast for 2017
1.0% → 0.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2016 forecast for 2017
0.7% → 0.7%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- February 2017 forecast for 2018
1.1% → 0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2017 forecast for 2018
1.1% → 0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2017 forecast for 2018
1.1% → 0.8%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2018 forecast for 2019
1.2% → 0.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2018 forecast for 2019
1.3% → 0.5%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- May 2019 forecast for 2020
1.1% → −1.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
- November 2019 forecast for 2020
0.7% → −1.1%
European Commission forecasts (PDF 2000–2010, AMECO 2011–2026)
A year counts when every forecast of it made a year earlier missed the same way by more than 0.05; two editions for one year are one check. Years with a known outcome: 22. Ten selected long runs are shown. Error signs can be dependent; countries, variables and windows were searched. The probability of such a run arising by chance has not been estimated here. Outcome: AMECO, spring 2026.
A run of errors with the same sign can reflect shared assumptions, shocks or data revisions; this selection does not separate them or rule out chance.
A question for this picture
What explains the run of errors: assumptions, shared shocks or data revisions?