ANC in 2014: 4.6 million South Africans on HIV treatment by 2016. In 2016: 4.14 million
ANC (2014 election manifesto)11 January 2014 · ANC 2014 election manifesto 'Together we move South Africa forward'
«The number of people on anti-retrovirals will be doubled from the present 2.4 million to 4.6 million by 2016.»
4.14 million people were on treatment in 2016, 90% of the 4.6 million target; 4.6 million was reached in 2017 (4.61 million).
Fact: ВОЗ, Global Health Observatory (данные UNAIDS/Минздрава ЮАР) / WHO GHO
That is 90% of the promise; 4.6 million was passed a year later, 4.61 million in 2017. Growth did not stop: in 2020, 5.57 million people were on treatment.
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South Africa’s ruling party promised to almost double the number of people on HIV treatment in three years. The number grew every year and reached the promise a year after the deadline.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- ANC (2014 election manifesto), ANC 2014 election manifesto 'Together we move South Africa forward' quote
«The number of people on anti-retrovirals will be doubled from the present 2.4 million to 4.6 million by 2016.»
- What happened nearly
4.14 million people were on treatment in 2016, 90% of the 4.6 million target; 4.6 million was reached in 2017 (4.61 million).
ВОЗ, Global Health Observatory (данные UNAIDS/Минздрава ЮАР) / WHO GHO
Quote: the African National Congress 2014 election manifesto. Fact: WHO Global Health Observatory (UNAIDS and South African Department of Health data), people on antiretroviral therapy. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Figures are programme-reported counts at year-end. The manifesto’s «present 2.4 million» is the end-2012 level; by end-2013 2.83 million were already on treatment. From September 2016 South Africa began treating everyone with HIV regardless of immune status.
A question for this picture
What moves such numbers more: a party’s promise or a change in medical treatment rules?