Yearly launch plans: of 9, 1 came true, 60 SpaceX launches in 2022
- Russia 2020: 33 planned52%
- Russia 2021: 29 planned86%
- India 2022: 8 planned63%
- Falcon 2022: target 60102%
- Falcon 2023: target 10096%
- Falcon 2024: target 14493%
- Space tourism 2021: 1152%
- Space tourism 2023: 2702%
- Astra 2025: 365 a year0%
Launches in the year, % of the plan
Of 9, 1 came true, 60 SpaceX launches in 2022.
SpaceX made 96 launches of the 100 promised in 2023 and 134 of 144 in 2024. Russia made 17 launches of the 33 planned in 2020. The suborbital tourist spaceplane flew 2 times in 2021 instead of 115.
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Space agencies and companies name at the start of a year how many launches they will make. Here are nine such plans and forecasts: Russia’s, India’s, SpaceX’s and those of two companies that promised investors frequent flights.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Falcon 2022: target 60 — Elon Musk, 2022 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches per year
promised 60 by 2022; fact 61 (102%). In 2022 SpaceX flew 61 Falcon launches (60 Falcon 9 and 1 Falcon Heavy).
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- Falcon 2023: target 100 — Elon Musk, 2022 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches per year
promised 100 by 2023; fact 96 (96%). In 2023 SpaceX flew 96 Falcon launches (91 Falcon 9 and 5 Falcon Heavy) plus 2 Starship test flights — 98 of 100.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- Falcon 2024: target 144 — Kiko Dontchev, 2024 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches per year
promised 144 by 2024; fact 134 (93%). In 2024 SpaceX flew 134 Falcon launches (132 Falcon 9 and 2 Falcon Heavy) plus 4 Starship flights.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- Russia 2021: 29 planned — Dmitry Rogozin, 2021 orbital launches of Russian rockets
promised 29 by 2021; fact 25 (86%). Russian rockets made 25 orbital launches in 2021, including 1 from Kourou.
GCAT — General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (J. McDowell, planet4589.org), журнал запусков
- India 2022: 8 planned — Jitendra Singh, 2022 orbital launches of Indian rockets
promised 8 by 2022; fact 5 (63%). Indian rockets made 5 orbital launches in 2022.
GCAT — General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (J. McDowell, planet4589.org), журнал запусков
- Russia 2020: 33 planned — Dmitry Rogozin, 2020 orbital launches of Russian rockets
promised 33 by 2020; fact 17 (52%). Russian rockets made 17 orbital launches in 2020, including 2 from Kourou.
GCAT — General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (J. McDowell, planet4589.org), журнал запусков
- Space tourism 2021: 115 — Virgin Galactic (management), 2019 SpaceShipTwo spaceflights per year
promised 115 by 2021; fact 2 (2%). In 2021 VSS Unity flew to space 2 times against a projection of 115.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, годовые отчёты 10-K за 2019–2025 годы (SEC EDGAR)
- Space tourism 2023: 270 — Virgin Galactic (management), 2019 SpaceShipTwo spaceflights per year
promised 270 by 2023; fact 6 (2%). In 2023 VSS Unity flew to space 6 times against a projection of 270.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, годовые отчёты 10-K за 2019–2025 годы (SEC EDGAR)
- Astra 2025: 365 a year — Kelyn Brannon, 2021 Astra orbital launches per year
promised 365 by 2025; fact 0 (0%). Astra's last launch was in June 2022; there were no launches in 2023–2025, against daily launches promised by 2025.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
Plans, verbatim: the Roscosmos chief’s report at a presidential meeting, a minister’s answer in India’s parliament, posts by Elon Musk and a SpaceX vice-president, Virgin Galactic and Astra investor presentations. Fact: Jonathan McDowell’s launch log (GCAT) and company annual reports. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Orbital launches are counted; for Virgin Galactic, suborbital flights of VSS Unity. The Virgin Galactic and Astra forecasts were made in investor presentations before their SPAC mergers, not as public promises. Astra’s last launch was in June 2022.
A question for this picture
Why does one company hit its launch plan year after year while others make less than half?