US: young graduates' unemployment has been above that of all workers for 66 months in a row; before, it never lasted more than 11 months
In 1990 graduates aged 22–27 were less often unemployed than others: 3.6% against 5.3%; in 2025, 5.4% against 4.1%. Peers without a degree are still unemployed more often: 7.3%.
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Every month the New York Fed computes unemployment for recent college graduates (aged 22–27, bachelor's or higher, not in school), their peers without a degree and all workers aged 16–65. For thirty years young graduates were unemployed less often than average. Since 2021 more often, and not as an episode: the series since 1990 has no streak this long.
Lines: unemployment over the calendar year (mean of the monthly estimates), % of each group's labour force.
- US: unemployment of graduates aged 22–27 % of labour force
1990: 3.6; 1995: 4.0; 2000: 2.8; 2005: 4.0; 2010: 7.0; 2015: 4.8; 2020: 8.0; 2025: 5.4
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
- US: unemployment of all workers aged 16–65 % of labour force
1990: 5.3; 1995: 5.3; 2000: 3.8; 2005: 4.9; 2010: 9.5; 2015: 5.2; 2020: 7.7; 2025: 4.1
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
- US: unemployment of peers without a degree, 22–27 % of labour force
1990: 7.9; 1995: 8.3; 2000: 6.3; 2005: 8.3; 2010: 15.5; 2015: 9.9; 2020: 12.9; 2025: 7.3
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
- US: months in a row with graduates above all workers months
66 (2021-01 — 2026-06); previous record 11
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
New York Fed, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates: monthly CPS estimates, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. Consecutive months with graduates above all workers: from January 2021 to June 2026. Earlier streaks: 2001-09…2001-09, 2014-12…2015-02, 2017-04…2017-04, 2018-10…2019-02, 2019-05…2020-03, 2020-06…2020-09. Annual numbers are full-year means (computed by Macroscope).
«All workers» are people aged 16–65 of any education and age; graduates are compared with them, not with peers. Peers without a degree never matched graduates in any month: the smallest gap was 1.3 pp (2025-04). The data show timing, not cause; New York City is not computed separately here: the survey has too few young graduates in one city.
A question for this picture
And pay: did the degree premium grow while the unemployment advantage shrank?