US: a young bachelor earns 50% more than a high-school peer, but peers without a degree are only 34% more often unemployed, against 117% in 1990
The pay premium for a degree has grown since 1990 (39% → 50%, peak 69% in 2015); the unemployment advantage shrank. Adults aged 25+ show the same: in 2025 high-school graduates were 1.61 times as often unemployed as bachelors, the least in any year since 1992.
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A degree brings two different gains: more money and less risk of being out of work. Among young Americans they have parted: the bachelor's pay premium barely fell, while the unemployment gap with peers without a degree became several times smaller. That does not mean the degree stopped helping: graduates are still unemployed less often.
Blue line: how many percent the median annual pay of a full-time bachelor aged 22–27 exceeds that of a peer with only a high-school diploma. Orange: how many percent the unemployment of peers without a degree exceeds that of graduates.
- US: median pay aged 22–27, bachelor / high school 2025 dollars
1990: 58,138 / 41,893; 2015: 59,776 / 35,322; 2025: 60,000 / 40,000
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
- US: unemployment aged 22–27, no degree / graduates % of labour force
1990: 7.9 / 3.6; 2025: 7.3 / 5.4
New York Fed: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (from the CPS)
- US: unemployment 25+, high school / bachelor's and higher % of labour force
1992: 6.83 / 3.18; 2019: 3.64 / 2.11; 2025: 4.24 / 2.63
New York Fed: Labor Market for Recent College Graduates; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New York Fed: median full-time pay at ages 22–27 in 2025 dollars (bachelor's only and high school only) and unemployment (graduates and peers without a degree, annual mean). BLS: unemployment aged 25+, high school no college and bachelor's and higher, annual mean of seasonally adjusted monthly series (from 1992; no survey in October 2025). The previous low of the ratio was 1.73 in 2019.
«Without a degree» at the New York Fed means everyone aged 22–27 without a bachelor's (high school, some college), while pay is compared with high school only: the groups differ, so the lines compare direction, not level. Pay is for full-time workers: it says nothing about those without work.
A question for this picture
Is it so everywhere: where a degree pays more, does it also protect against unemployment?