US: the year Social Security runs out moved 13 years back and forth
depletion year of Social Security reserves (OASDI)
In 1983 a reform pushed depletion beyond the 75-year horizon. In 1994 it was expected in 2029, in 2003 in 2042. The latest report (2026): 2034.
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Social Security pays US public pensions and disability benefits. Every year its trustees project when its reserves run out if the law does not change; after that it can pay only part of benefits from current contributions.
Across: the year of the report; up: the year it expected the reserves to run out. Dots: the earliest date, the latest date and the newest report.
- 1994 report
2029
- 2003 report
2042
- 2026 report
2034
The intermediate assumptions of the annual Social Security Trustees Reports 1982–2026, combined OASI and DI trust funds. The 1983 and 1984 reports expected no depletion within 75 years.
The date moved both ways: later in the fast wage growth of the late 1990s, earlier with falling fertility and longer lives. The trustees attribute more than half of the balance’s decline since 1983 to the 75-year window moving on, not to forecasting errors. The 2012 projection that costs would exceed income from 2021 came true.
A question for this picture
If the date has sat at 2033–2035 for 15 years, what changes when it is five years away?