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  1. ForecastsUnited States

    US: the reports for 2025 counted 1.21M new jobs. Now: 116k

    +1.21Min the first reports for 2025
    +116kin the latest data

    US: nonfarm payroll jobs added in the year

    −10k020002025

    The first monthly BLS reports added up, against the same months in the latest data. Revisions go the other way too: for 2021 the first count was 5.33M, now 7.27M.

    Source: BEA (via the Philadelphia Fed), ONS, Destatis (via the Bundesbank), BLS: first estimates and latest dataOpen on the chart →
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    Each month the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes how many nonfarm jobs were added. The first figure comes from an incomplete survey of employers; it is revised twice in the following months and once a year benchmarked to tax records on payrolls.

    By year: blue, the sum of the year’s first monthly figures; orange, the gain over the same months in the latest data. The shading is the revision.

    First estimates: the BLS revisions table (each month’s first publication); latest: BLS data as of October 2026 (series CES0000000001, seasonally adjusted). A year is the sum of 12 monthly changes. October 2025 had no regular first estimate because of the government shutdown: its first published figure (December 2025) is used.

    Revisions go both ways; in recessions first prints tend to be too rosy, in fast recoveries too gloomy. Part of the difference is the annual benchmark to tax records and new seasonal factors.

    A question for this picture

    Markets and the Fed react to the first figure within minutes. What changes when a year later it proves ten times smaller?

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