US: in November 2008 forecasters expected unemployment of 7.4% for 2009; the outcome was 9.3%
Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 26; typical error −0.26 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2019: 3.6% expected for 2020, the outcome was 8.1%. The largest over-forecast in November 2020: 6.3% expected for 2021, the outcome was 5.3%.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters; actual: BEA and BLS; recessions: NBEROpen on the chart →