US: in November 2020 forecasters expected inflation of 2.0% for 2021; the outcome was 6.8%
Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 13 times, below 22; typical error −0.23 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 2020: 2.0% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.8%. The largest over-forecast in November 1990: 5.2% expected for 1991, the outcome was 3.0%.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters; actual: BEA and BLS; recessions: NBEROpen on the chart →