US: in November 1998 forecasters expected GDP growth of 2.1% for 1999; the outcome was 4.8%
Next-year forecasts of 35 releases (1990–2024): the outcome above the forecast 18 times, below 17; typical error +0.09 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in November 1998: 2.1% expected for 1999, the outcome was 4.8%. The largest over-forecast in November 2019: 1.8% expected for 2020, the outcome was −2.1%.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters; actual: BEA and BLS; recessions: NBEROpen on the chart →