US: in November 2007 Fed participants expected (median) GDP growth of 2.2% for 2008; the outcome was −2.5%
Next-year projections of 69 releases (2007–2024): the outcome above the median projection 31 times, below 38; typical error −0.22 percentage points. The largest under-projection in December 2022: 0.5% expected for 2023, the outcome was 3.4%. The largest over-projection in November 2007: 2.2% expected for 2008, the outcome was −2.5%.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections; actual: BEA, BLS, Federal ReserveOpen on the chart →