US: in March 2021 the Fed expected the policy rate of 0.1% for 2022; the outcome was 4.4%
Next-year projections of 52 releases (2012–2024): the outcome above the median projection 27 times, below 25; typical error +0.02 percentage points. The largest under-projection in March 2021: 0.1% expected for 2022, the outcome was 4.4%. The largest over-projection in March 2019: 2.6% expected for 2020, the outcome was 0.1%.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections; actual: BEA, BLS, Federal ReserveOpen on the chart →