US: in January 2008 CBO projected a surplus of 1.0% of GDP for 2018; the outcome was a deficit of 3.8%
18 releases: the outcome below the projection 16 times, above 2. A baseline assumes current law: laws passed later are part of the gap.
Source: CBO: budget baselines and their evaluation; Social Security Trustees Reports 1982–2026Open on the chart →