US: in February 2008 Fed participants expected (median) unemployment of 5.1% for 2009; the outcome was 9.9%
Next-year projections of 69 releases (2007–2024): the outcome above the median projection 26 times, below 43; typical error −0.23 percentage points. The largest under-projection in February 2008: 5.1% expected for 2009, the outcome was 9.9%. The largest over-projection in June 2020: 6.5% expected for 2021, the outcome was 4.2%.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections; actual: BEA, BLS, Federal ReserveOpen on the chart →