US: in February 2008 the administration expected GDP growth of 3.0% for 2009; the outcome was −2.6%
Next-year forecasts of 29 releases (1992–2022): the outcome above the forecast 9 times, below 20; typical error −0.60 percentage points. The largest under-forecast in February 2020: 3.1% expected for 2021, the outcome was 6.3%. The largest over-forecast in February 2008: 3.0% expected for 2009, the outcome was −2.6%.
Source: US Office of Management and Budget: budget assumptions FY1977–FY2027; outcome: BEAOpen on the chart →