US: in 2007 CBO projected public debt falling to 20% of GDP by 2017. The outcome: 76% — Macroscope

Skip to content

RU

ForecastsUnited States
US: in 2007 CBO projected public debt falling to 20% of GDP by 2017. The outcome: 76%
20%projected for 2017 (January 2007)
76%outcome
US: debt held by the public, % of GDP
The projection knew nothing of the 2008 crisis or the laws after it, and could not: CBO’s baseline assumes current law. Each later projection raised the path.
Source: CBO: budget baselines and their evaluation; Social Security Trustees Reports 1982–2026Open on the chart →
More
Debt held by the public: federal debt held by everyone but federal trust funds (the Fed included), as a percentage of fiscal-year GDP.
The solid line is debt in CBO’s data. Dashed lines: January baselines of different years, 2007 highlighted.
- January 2007 projection for 2017
  20.1%
  CBO, 10-Year Budget Projections (January 2007)
- Actual 2017
  75.7%
  CBO, Historical Budget Data (February 2026)
CBO January baselines 2007–2026 in percent of GDP (“10-Year Budget Projections” workbooks); actual: CBO Historical Budget Data (February 2026).
A baseline’s miss is not only economists’ error: it includes every law passed later (by CBO’s own estimate their 10-year effect is on average larger than its own forecasting error).
A question for this picture
If every new projection sits above the previous one, where will the next one land?

More findings

All findings →