Trump in 2016: the US economy will grow 4% a year. The best year of the term gave 3%, 2020 minus 2.1%
Donald Trump22 October 2016 · Gettysburg speech: “Contract with the American Voter”
«An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification...»
Growth did not reach 4% in any year of the term: 2.5% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018, 2.6% in 2019, −2.1% in 2020.
Growth was 2.5% in 2017, 3% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, 2.7% on average. In 2020 the pandemic stopped the economy.
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A presidential candidate named the growth rate his plan was designed for. In the four years of the term growth never reached the promise.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Donald Trump, Gettysburg speech: “Contract with the American Voter” quote
«An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification...»
- What happened did not come true
Growth did not reach 4% in any year of the term: 2.5% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018, 2.6% in 2019, −2.1% in 2020.
Quote: the Gettysburg speech of 22 October 2016 (“Contract with the American Voter”), transcript by The American Presidency Project. Fact: IMF World Economic Outlook (Bureau of Economic Analysis data), Macroscope series “GDP growth”. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
2020 was the COVID-19 pandemic. The same sentence promised 25 million new jobs over ten years; that deadline has not passed. The promise was a candidate’s; growth does not depend on the president alone.
A question for this picture
How much of four years of economic growth depends on who the president is?