Tesla’s new cars and factories: of 10 promised dates, 2 came true; the rest were late or are still awaited
- Model 3 at $35,000 by 20171.2 years late
- Semi: first trucks by 20201.9 years late
- Semi: deliveries by 20210.9 years late
- Cybertruck deliveries, 20211.8 years late
- Cybertruck at $39,900, 2022not yet
- Berlin and Texas by 20210.2 years late
- Model Y by summer 2020on time
- Cheaper model by 2025on time
- Semi factory by 2025not yet
- Roadster by 2025not yet
Of 10 promised dates, 2 came true; the rest were late or are still awaited.
The crossover and the cheaper versions came on time, the Berlin and Texas factories 0.2 years late. The pickup and the truck were almost two years late, and the $39,900 pickup never went on sale.
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Tesla announces new models long before production and names dates. Here are ten such dates since 2017: models, their prices and factories, and how many years past each deadline the first cars reached buyers.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Cybertruck at $39,900, 2022 — Tesla, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2022; not happened by 11 October 2026. A $39,900 single-motor Cybertruck never went on sale; sales from November 2023 began with costlier versions.
- Semi: first trucks by 2020 — Tesla, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2020; happened December 2022 (1.9 years late). The first Semis were built and delivered in December 2022, 1.9 years after the deadline.
- Cybertruck deliveries, 2021 — Elon Musk, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened November 2023 (1.8 years late). The first Cybertrucks were delivered in November 2023, 1.8 years after the deadline.
- Model 3 at $35,000 by 2017 — Tesla, 2017 years past the deadline
promised by 2017; happened March 2019 (1.2 years late). The $35,000 Model 3 went on sale in late February–March 2019, 1.2 years after the deadline.
Tesla, press release on Model 3 pricing (SEC, 8-K, 2019-03-11)
- Semi: deliveries by 2021 — Tesla, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened December 2022 (0.9 years late). The first Semis were delivered in December 2022, 0.9 years after the deadline.
- Semi factory by 2025 — Tesla, 2024 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; not happened by 11 October 2026. In July 2026 the Nevada Semi line was still "Commissioning"; the company expects production in 2026.
- Roadster by 2025 — Elon Musk, 2024 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; not happened by 11 October 2026. In the 2026 production table the Roadster is still in "Design development".
- Berlin and Texas by 2021 — Tesla, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened April 2022 (0.2 years late). Deliveries from Berlin began in March 2022 and from Texas in April 2022, 0.2 years after the deadline.
- Model Y by summer 2020 — Tesla, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2020; happened March 2020 (on time). Model Y production started in January 2020 and deliveries in March, before summer.
Tesla, Q1 2020 production and deliveries press release (SEC, 8-K, 2020-04-02)
- Cheaper model by 2025 — Elon Musk, 2025 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; happened October 2025 (on time). First units were built in June 2025; Model 3 and Model Y Standard went on sale in October 2025 from $36,990 and $39,990.
Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, Tesla shareholder letters and earnings calls, model unveilings. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The event is the start of deliveries or production, as in the promise. The pickup went on sale in November 2023 with the pricier versions. The Nevada truck factory was still being commissioned in July 2026; the new Roadster is in design development.
A question for this picture
Why is an announced model so hard to ship on time, even with a factory and demand ready?