Tesla in 2014: about 500,000 cars a year by 2020. In 2020: 499,550
Tesla (CEO Elon Musk)26 February 2014 · Gigafactory presentation (filed with form 8-K)
«Gigafactory Projected Figures — 2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume ≈500,000/yr»
2020: 499,550 delivered and 509,737 produced; in 2018, where the target was moved in 2016, about half.
Fact: Tesla, quarterly production and deliveries releases; 10-K
In 2016 the company moved the target to 2018 and missed it then. In 2025 it delivered 1.64 million cars.
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A carmaker making tens of thousands of cars named its volume six years ahead. In the year it named, the number matched almost exactly.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Tesla (CEO Elon Musk), Gigafactory presentation (filed with form 8-K) quote
«Gigafactory Projected Figures — 2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume ≈500,000/yr»
- What happened came true
2020: 499,550 delivered and 509,737 produced; in 2018, where the target was moved in 2016, about half.
- 2020 thousand cars
499,550 delivered, 509,737 produced
- May 2016 thousand cars
the 500,000-a-year plan moved to 2018
Quote: the Gigafactory presentation filed with form 8-K (SEC) on 26 Feb 2014. Fact: Tesla production and deliveries press releases. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
509,737 cars were produced in 2020. The target was once moved to 2018 (Q1 2016 update), when about half was delivered. Some early years come from secondary sources.
A question for this picture
Did the forecast come true if its deadline was once moved earlier?