Saudi Arabia: fertility is 75% above a GDP-based estimate
197 countries compared in 2023. GDP per person here: $64,500, adjusted for prices. The fitted line at that GDP gives 1.30; the observation is 2.28. This is a model estimate, not an average of a matched group.
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GDP alone does not describe differences between countries. The highlighted country lies far from a simple fitted line.
Dots are countries in one year; the line is the model. GDP uses a logarithmic scale.
- Total fertility rate children per woman
2023: 2.28
- GDP per capita, PPP constant 2021 international $
2023: 64,481.84
OLS across 197 countries: log indicator against log GDP per capita at PPP. Large residuals selected while exploring three relationships.
A description of a selected cross-section, not a causal effect or forecast. Results depend on model form, country coverage and data revisions; no statistical significance is claimed for the selected outlier.
A question for this picture
Does the deviation persist with a different model and country sample?