Pledges to build power plants in 8 countries: by the deadline, 12% to 100% of the promise
- China: 1,200 GW wind and solar100%
- France: wind and solar ×297%
- US: double renewables87%
- India: 175 GW renewables69%
- Kenya: 5.2 GW capacity59%
- Ethiopia: 17 GW capacity26%
- South Africa: 10 TWh renewables17%
- Saudi Arabia: 3.45 GW12%
Fact at the deadline, % of the promised number
By the deadline, 12% to 100% of the promise.
Only China reached its goal: 1,206 GW of wind and solar against 1,200, six years ahead of the deadline. Saudi Arabia built 413 MW of a promised 3,450 by 2020.
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Presidents and governments promised how many new power plants they would build, or how much electricity wind and sun would give, by a deadline. Here is one such pledge per country beside what came out.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- China: 1,200 GW wind and solar — Xi Jinping, 2020 GW
promised 1,200 by 2030; fact 1,206 (100%). The 2030 target was reached in July 2024.
- France: wind and solar ×2 — Emmanuel Macron, 2017 GW, wind + solar, net capacity at year end
promised 39 by 2022; fact 38 (97%). The pledge was to double wind and solar capacity by 2022 (from 19.3 to 38.5 GW); at end-2022 it was 37.5 GW (1.95 times as much), and 43.0 GW in 2023.
Eurostat, nrg_inf_epcrw (Electricity production capacities for renewables)
- US: double renewables — Barack Obama, 2009 TWh of non-hydro renewable generation
promised 252 by 2012; fact 218 (87%). Non-hydro renewable generation rose from 126 TWh in 2008 to 218 TWh in 2012; it doubled (252 TWh) in 2013.
- India: 175 GW renewables — Arun Jaitley, 2015 GW
promised 175 by 2022; fact 121 (69%). By the end of 2022: 121 GW of 175 (69%); by March 2025: 172 GW.
MNRE, Year-wise achievement; Rajya Sabha, unstarred question 259, 07.02.2023
- Kenya: 5.2 GW capacity — Government of Kenya (President Uhuru Kenyatta), 2018 MW
promised 5,221 by 2022; fact 3,076 (59%). 2021/22: 3,076 MW against a planned 5,221 MW — about 380 MW added instead of 2,500.
Government of Kenya, Fourth Medium Term Plan 2023–2027 (review of MTP III)
- Ethiopia: 17 GW capacity — Government of Ethiopia (National Planning Commission), 2016 MW
promised 17,208 by 2020; fact 4,500 (26%). About 4,500 MW against the planned 17,208 MW — roughly a quarter of the target.
U.S. International Trade Administration, Energy Resource Guide — Ethiopia, Renewable Energy (2021)
- South Africa: 10 TWh renewables — Department of Minerals and Energy of South Africa, 2003 TWh a year, renewable electricity generation (hydro, bioenergy, wind, solar)
promised 10 by 2013; fact 2 (17%). Renewables generated 1.7 TWh of electricity in 2013 against 10 TWh; 10 TWh was passed in 2017 (12.1) after the REIPPPP auctions.
- Saudi Arabia: 3.45 GW — Government of Saudi Arabia (Council of Economic and Development Affairs), 2016 MW of installed renewable capacity
promised 3,450 by 2020; fact 413 (12%). End-2020: 413 MW of renewables against 3,450 MW.
Pledges: speeches, national development plans and programmes (document texts). Fact: China’s National Energy Administration, Eurostat, the US Energy Information Administration, India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, the Government of Kenya, the US Department of Commerce, Ember and the International Renewable Energy Agency. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The units differ: some pledges are plant capacity, others output in a year; Kenya and Ethiopia count all power plants. China reached its goal in July 2024; the deadline is 2030. France: the pledge names no starting point, the end of 2016 is taken; from the end of 2017 the growth is 1.77-fold. US: the speech did not say what to double; here it is output without hydro; wind and solar together did double. India counts without large hydro. Kenya itself lowered the goal to 4,192 MW and missed that too. Ethiopia: 4,500 MW is a rounded estimate; the big dam only came online in 2022–2025. South Africa’s goal is broader than electricity (solar water heaters, biofuels); electricity output is taken for comparison, including hydro that already worked.
A question for this picture
Why do some countries build plants faster than promised and others several times slower?