Russia’s 2018 budget assumed oil at $43.8 a barrel. The outcome: $70
Russia: Urals oil, $ a barrel
Over 15 years oil came in cheaper than assumed 6 times, dearer 9. Since 2017 the budget rule counts revenue at a “base” price.
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Each autumn, with the draft budget, the government publishes its base forecast: the dollar rate, the oil price, growth and inflation for the next three years. Budget revenue is computed on these assumptions. Here: the assumptions for the next year against the outcome.
By year: blue, what the budget assumed for that year (the forecast made a year earlier); orange, the outcome. The shading is the error.
- 2009: assumed → outcome
$95 → $61.1
- 2010: assumed → outcome
$55 → $78.2
ОНБП на 2010–2012 годы (Минфин, август 2009), таблица 1.1, столбцы «Оценка/Прогноз»
- 2011: assumed → outcome
$75 → $109
- 2012: assumed → outcome
$93 → $111
- 2013: assumed → outcome
$97 → $108
ОНБП на 2013–2015 годы (Минфин, июль 2012), таблица основных показателей прогноза, столбцы «прогноз»
- 2014: assumed → outcome
$101 → $97.6
ОНБП на 2014–2016 годы (Минфин, июль 2013), таблица 5.1, столбцы «прогноз»
- 2015: assumed → outcome
$100 → $51.2
- 2016: assumed → outcome
$50 → $41.7
- 2017: assumed → outcome
$40 → $53
ОНБП на 2017–2019 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2016), таблица 1.3.1
- 2018: assumed → outcome
$43.8 → $70
ОНБНТТП на 2018–2020 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2017), таблица основных параметров прогноза
- 2019: assumed → outcome
$63.4 → $63.8
ОНБНиТТП на 2019–2021 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2018), таблица основных параметров прогноза
- 2020: assumed → outcome
$57 → $41.4
ОНБНиТТП на 2020–2022 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2019), таблица 3, базовый вариант
- 2021: assumed → outcome
$45.3 → $69.1
ОНБНиТТП на 2021–2023 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2020), таблица 2.2.1
- 2022: assumed → outcome
$62.2 → $77.5
ОНБНиТТП на 2022–2024 годы (Минфин, сентябрь 2021), таблица 2.2.1
- 2023: assumed → outcome
$70.1 → $62.9
ОНБНиТТП на 2023–2025 годы (Минфин, октябрь 2022), таблица 2.2.1
The Ministry of Finance’s budget policy guidelines (2009–2026), the 2009 budget law and the Ministry of Economic Development’s 2015 scenario: base case, value for the next year. Outcome: the rate, the average of the Bank of Russia’s official rates; Urals, the Ministry of Economic Development’s reported figures; GDP growth, IMF data (April 2026, from Rosstat); inflation, the Bank of Russia, December over December.
From 2023 the documents give the export price of Russian oil rather than Urals; those years are not compared. A budget assumption is not a promise nor the Bank of Russia’s forecast: it is what revenue was computed on. Misses both ways show on the chart.
A question for this picture
What happens to a budget when its assumption misses reality by tens of percent?