Promises to hold inflation in 6 countries: 3 of 8 came true. Turkey promised under 10% by 2023 and got 53.9%
- Ghana: below 10% by 201617.5%
- Nigeria: below 10% by 202013.2%
- Ethiopia: below 10% by 202020.4%
- Turkey: below 10% by 202353.9%
- Nigeria: 21.4% in 202433.2%
- Morocco: up to 2% by 20161.54%
- Ghana: 8% in 20197.9%
- China: about 3% in 20192.91%
Price growth in the deadline year, %
3 of 8 came true. Turkey promised under 10% by 2023 and got 53.9%.
The targets of Morocco, China and Ghana for 2019 came true: there prices were already rising not much faster than the target when it was set. In Ghana by 2016, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Turkey inflation stayed above 10% at the deadline.
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Governments and parties promise how much prices will rise in a year. Here are eight such promises from six countries beside price growth in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Turkey: below 10% by 2023 — Government of Turkey (Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan), 2013 % a year, average prices
promised 10 by 2023; fact 54 (539%). 2023 average inflation: 53.9%; it was below 10% in 2012–2016 (7.5–8.9%) and above 10% from 2017.
МВФ, World Economic Outlook, инфляция, среднегодовые цены (по данным TÜİK)
- Ethiopia: below 10% by 2020 — Government of Ethiopia (National Planning Commission), 2016 % a year
promised 10 by 2020; fact 20 (204%). Inflation was single-digit only in the plan's first year (6.6% in 2015/16); in 2019/20 it was 20.4%.
- Ghana: below 10% by 2016 — National Democratic Congress (John Mahama), 2012 % a year, average
promised 10 by 2016; fact 17 (175%). Average inflation rose from 7.1% in 2012 to 17.5% in 2016; it was not single-digit in any year of the term.
- Nigeria: 21.4% in 2024 — Bola Tinubu, 2023 % a year, average
promised 21 by 2024; fact 33 (155%). Average inflation in 2024 was 33.2%, December on December 34.8%, against the 21.4% forecast.
- Nigeria: below 10% by 2020 — Government of Nigeria (Muhammadu Buhari), 2017 % a year, average
promised 10 by 2020; fact 13 (132%). Average inflation in 2020 was 13.2%, December on December 15.8%; it did not fall below 10% in any plan year.
- Ghana: 8% in 2019 — Ken Ofori-Atta, 2018 % a year, December on December
promised 8 by 2019; fact 8 (99%). December 2019 inflation was 7.9% year on year against the 8.0% target.
IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2025, Ghana Statistical Service CPI
- China: about 3% in 2019 — Li Keqiang, 2019 % annual consumer price growth
promised 3 by 2019; fact 3 (97%). In 2019 consumer prices rose 2.9% against a target of around 3%.
Государственное статистическое управление КНР, статистические коммюнике; МВФ WEO (база Макроскопа)
- Morocco: up to 2% by 2016 — Abdelilah Benkirane, 2012 % per year, average
promised 2 by 2016; fact 2 (77%). 2016 inflation: 1.5%; it was below 2% in every year of 2012–2016.
Promises: verbatim from party manifestos, development plans, budget speeches and the Chinese government work reports. Fact: IMF World Economic Outlook and national statistics. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Targets of “single-digit” inflation are read as “below 10%”. For Ghana in 2019 it is December-on-December growth, for the others the annual average. Nigeria’s 2024 number is a budget forecast; that year the naira fell after the fixed rate was dropped. China’s “about 3%” is understood as a ceiling.
A question for this picture
Can low inflation be promised by a government that does not hold its currency’s rate?