Promises to cut poverty: 3 of 7 came true on time. US Democrats expected 6.25% by 2018; it was 11.8%
- Canada: 11.6% by 20206.5%
- Chile: 7.8% by 20226.5%
- Peru: 30% by 201127.8%
- Philippines: 14% by 202215.5%
- Bangladesh: 15% by 202118.7%
- Indonesia: 5–6% by 20199.41%
- US: halve, to 6.25% by 201811.8%
Poverty rate in the deadline year, % of people, by the country’s own line
3 of 7 came true on time. US Democrats expected 6.25% by 2018; it was 11.8%.
Canada, Chile and Peru ended below their targets. Canada passed its target before the law that set it; in Chile the 2022 survey came after large pandemic transfers. Indonesia promised 5–6% and got 9.41%.
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Parties and governments promise to bring the share of the poor down to a given level by the end of the term. Here are seven such promises from seven countries beside what the statistics showed in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- US: halve, to 6.25% by 2018 — U.S. Democratic Party, 2008 % of people, official poverty measure
promised 6 by 2018; fact 12 (189%). Official poverty in 2018 was 11.8%, against 12.5% in 2007; halving means 6.25%.
- Indonesia: 5–6% by 2019 — Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla, 2014 % of population (March)
promised 6 by 2019; fact 9 (157%). In 2019 poverty was 9.41% (March) and 9.22% (September) against the promised 5–6%.
- Bangladesh: 15% by 2021 — Sheikh Hasina, 2009 % of population below the national poverty line
promised 15 by 2021; fact 19 (125%). The goal was 15% by 2021; the 2022 survey showed 18.7%.
- Philippines: 14% by 2022 — Government of the Philippines (Rodrigo Duterte), 2017 % of population below the poverty line
promised 14 by 2022; fact 16 (111%). Poverty was 18.1% in 2021 and 15.5% in 2023 against a 14% target for 2022.
Philippine Statistics Authority, Family Income and Expenditure Survey
- Peru: 30% by 2011 — Gonzalo Gutiérrez Reinel (for the Government of Peru), 2007 % of population in monetary poverty
promised 30 by 2011; fact 28 (93%). The goal was 30% by 2011; it was 27.8%. Poverty fell below 30% in 2011 (30.8% in 2010).
- Chile: 7.8% by 2022 — Sebastián Piñera, 2017 % of people
promised 8 by 2022; fact 7 (83%). The Casen 2022 survey puts poverty at 6.5% against a 7.8% goal; in pandemic 2020 it was 10.7%.
Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia, Encuesta Casen 2022: Resultados pobreza por ingresos
- Canada: 11.6% by 2020 — Justin Trudeau government, 2019 % of people below the Official Poverty Line (MBM)
promised 12 by 2020; fact 7 (56%). The poverty rate on the official line fell from 14.5% in 2015 to 6.5% in 2020 against a target of 11.6%; it was 10.4% in 2023.
Statistics Canada, Table 11-10-0135-01 Low income statistics by age, sex and economic family type
Promises: verbatim from manifestos, laws, speeches and plans. Fact: national poverty statistics: Statistics Canada, the Casen survey (Chile), INEI (Peru), PSA (Philippines), BBS (Bangladesh), BPS (Indonesia), US Census Bureau. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Chile: the goal is a third below the 11.7% (2015 survey) cited in the programme; a third below the 2017 survey (8.5%) is 5.7% and was not reached; under the 2024 method 2022 poverty is 17.3%. Canada: temporary pandemic benefits worked in 2020. Bangladesh: no survey for 2021, the bar is 2022. US: the platform was followed by the 2008–2009 crisis. Philippines: 2020–2021 was the pandemic.
A question for this picture
What cuts poverty more: economic growth or state payments?