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  1. ForecastsNew Zealand

    New Zealand: Stats NZ projected the population better than the UN — in 6 of 8 pairs of projections

    Stats NZ 2016+1%UN 2015+7%Stats NZ 20200%UN 2019+5%Stats NZ 2022+1%UN 2022−1%← actual below the projectionabove →

    Projections from nearby years, checked against Stats NZ's latest estimate. The three latest pairs: national office in blue, UN in orange. Below zero means fewer people than projected.

    Source: National statistical offices: projections and actual dataOpen on the chart →
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    Each national projection against the UN revision of the same years, both against Stats NZ's latest estimate. For example, for 2023: Stats NZ 2016 expected 5.16M (actual 0.8% above the projection), the UN 2015 projection 4.85M (actual 7.3% above the projection); the estimate is 5.2M (the UN's 2024 estimate: 5.17M).

    Error = (estimate / projection − 1) × 100%. Each pair uses its latest common year; years can differ between pairs. The front shows the three latest pairs; all comparisons are below.

    Use the central national scenario and the nearest UN edition, from one year before to two years after publication. Require at least three pairs; an absolute-error advantage of 0.5 percentage point counts as a win. Select countries where one side wins at least 75% of pairs.

    The latest estimate can itself be revised. Nearby projections are not independent trials; this is not a general ranking of institutions. Countries with national and UN population counts over 3% apart are excluded, but a smaller difference does not prove identical definitions.

    A question for this picture

    Will the comparison change after the next population revision?

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