New ships for people: of 6 promised first flights, 1 came on time and 2 have not happened yet
- Starliner: crew by 20176.9 years late
- Crew Dragon: crew by 20181.9 years late
- India: crewed ship by 2022not yet
- Russia: Oryol test by 2023not yet
- Inspiration4 by 2021on time
- Polaris Dawn by 20221.7 years late
Of 6 promised first flights, 1 came on time and 2 have not happened yet.
Boeing’s ship flew a crew 6.9 years after the deadline, SpaceX’s 1.9 years after. India’s ship and Russia’s Oryol had carried no one by October 2026.
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A crewed ship is the hardest thing in spaceflight: it is tested at length without people. Here are six promised first flights: two ships for NASA, India’s and Russia’s, and two private flights on a ship already flying.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Starliner: crew by 2017 — Boeing, 2014 years past the deadline
promised by 2017; happened 5 June 2024 (6.9 years late). Starliner first flew with crew on 5 June 2024, seven years after mid-2017.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- India: crewed ship by 2022 — Narendra Modi, 2018 years past the deadline
promised by 2022; not happened by 11 October 2026. There was no Indian crewed flight by 2022; by 2026-10 even the first uncrewed Gaganyaan flight had not flown.
Press Information Bureau (Government of India), PRID 2295557 (6 August 2026)
- Russia: Oryol test by 2023 — Vladimir Putin, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2023; not happened by 11 October 2026. By 2026-10 the new crewed spacecraft (Oryol) had not flown.
GCAT — General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (J. McDowell, planet4589.org), журнал запусков
- Crew Dragon: crew by 2018 — SpaceX, 2017 years past the deadline
promised by 2018; happened 30 May 2020 (1.9 years late). Crew Dragon first flew with crew on 30 May 2020, almost two years after Q2 2018.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- Polaris Dawn by 2022 — Polaris Program (Jared Isaacman), 2022 years past the deadline
promised by 2022; happened 10 September 2024 (1.7 years late). Polaris Dawn launched on 10 September 2024, 1.7 years after the end of 2022; the flight included the first private spacewalk.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
- Inspiration4 by 2021 — SpaceX, 2021 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened 16 September 2021 (on time). Inspiration4 launched on 16 September 2021, within the year and even before the stated fourth quarter.
Jonathan McDowell, General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects (GCAT), launch log
Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, company and NASA press releases, the Indian prime minister’s address, a Russian presidential meeting. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The private flights (crews of non-professional astronauts) used the already flying Crew Dragon, so their dates do not compare with testing a new ship. An Indian astronaut flew to the ISS in 2025 on an American ship: that is not a flight of India’s ship.
A question for this picture
How many years does it really take from the promise to a new ship’s first crew?