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  1. Science and spaceUnited States

    Musk’s and SpaceX’s dates: near ones came up to a year or so late; the Mars flight due by 2022 has not begun

    • Cargo to Mars by 2022not yet
    • Crew to Mars by 2024not yet
    • Uncrewed Dragon by 20171.2 years late
    • Falcon Heavy by summer 20170.4 years late
    • Starship flight by 20220.4 years late
    • Booster reflight by 2017on time
    Did it come true?Came true: 1 of 6

    Near ones came up to a year or so late; the Mars flight due by 2022 has not begun.

    Cargo to Mars by 2022not yetCrew to Mars by 2024not yetUncrewed Dragon by 20171.2 years lateFalcon Heavy by summer 20170.4 years lateStarship flight by 20220.4 years lateBooster reflight by 2017on time

    The booster reflight came on time; Falcon Heavy and Starship’s first flight were 0.4 years late. Musk promised a cargo flight to Mars by 2022 and a crewed one by 2024.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    Elon Musk often names SpaceX dates in public: in talks, at congresses, on social media. Here are six of them, from a booster reflight to a flight to Mars, and how many years after each passed before the event.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, Elon Musk’s talks at the International Astronautical Congress, his posts, SpaceX press conferences. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    Abandoned projects are left out: Red Dragon to Mars, the Dragon lunar flyby and the dearMoon flight around the Moon. Musk himself called the Mars date «aspirational». Windows to Mars open every 26 months. Starship first reached orbit on 28 September 2026.

    A question for this picture

    What sets apart the dates that come true from those moved for years?

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