Morocco: HCP projected the population better than the UN — in all 3 pairs of projections
Projections from nearby years, checked against HCP's latest estimate. The three latest pairs: national office in blue, UN in orange. Below zero means fewer people than projected.
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Each national projection against the UN revision of the same years, both against HCP's latest estimate. For example, for 2024: HCP 2017 expected 37.4M (actual 1.6% below the projection), the UN 2017 projection 38.7M (actual 5% below the projection); the estimate is 36.8M.
Error = (estimate / projection − 1) × 100%. Each pair uses its latest common year; years can differ between pairs. The front shows the three latest pairs; all comparisons are below.
- HCP 2017 → 2024
37.4M → 36.8M; −1.62%
- UN 2017 → 2024
38.7M → 36.8M; −5.04%
- Population on 1 July from the 2004, 2014 and 2024 censuses (HCP) · 2024
36.8M
- HCP 2007 → 2024
36.3M → 36.8M; 1.15%
- UN 2006 → 2024
37.6M → 36.8M; −2.1%
- Population on 1 July from the 2004, 2014 and 2024 censuses (HCP) · 2024
36.8M
- HCP 2011 → 2024
36.6M → 36.8M; 0.39%
- UN 2010 → 2024
36.2M → 36.8M; 1.68%
- Population on 1 July from the 2004, 2014 and 2024 censuses (HCP) · 2024
36.8M
Use the central national scenario and the nearest UN edition, from one year before to two years after publication. Require at least three pairs; an absolute-error advantage of 0.5 percentage point counts as a win. Select countries where one side wins at least 75% of pairs.
The latest estimate can itself be revised. Nearby projections are not independent trials; this is not a general ranking of institutions. Countries with national and UN population counts over 3% apart are excluded, but a smaller difference does not prove identical definitions.
A question for this picture
Will the comparison change after the next population revision?