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  1. EconomyMexico

    López Obrador’s 2019–2024 plan: 6% GDP growth by 2024 and 4% on average. The result: 1.35% and 0.9%

    Andrés Manuel López Obrador12 July 2019 · National Development Plan 2019-2024, epilogue

    «…a growth rate of 6 percent, with a six-year average of 4 percent.»

    translated by Macroscope
    Did it come true?Did not come true

    2024: 1.35% instead of 6%; 2019–2024 average 0.9% instead of 4%.

    Fact: МВФ, Перспективы мировой экономики, апрель 2026 / IMF WEO April 2026

    −505201620172018201920202021202220232024% a year1.35 in 2024goal 6 by 20244.65 shortsaid

    In 2020 Mexico’s economy shrank by 8.35%. Leaving out 2020, average growth in 2019–2024 was 2.8%.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    Mexico’s National Development Plan named a growth rate for the end of the presidential term. Growth was lower both in the last year and on average.

    First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.

    Quote: epilogue of the National Development Plan, published in the official gazette on 12 July 2019. Fact: IMF (WEO, April 2026), Macroscope series “GDP growth”. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    The average is a simple mean of the six yearly rates. The 2020 pandemic was not in the 2019 plan.

    A question for this picture

    What would Mexico’s growth have been without 2020, and would it have reached 4%?

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