Japan’s LDP in 2017 promised no nursery waiting lists by 2020. In spring 2021, 5,634 children were waiting
Liberal Democratic Party2 October 2017 · LDP 2017 election manifesto
«To eliminate childcare waiting lists, we will bring forward the "Childcare Peace of Mind Plan" and create places for 320,000 children by fiscal 2020.»
On 1 April 2021, 5,634 children were waiting — 4.6 times fewer than in 2017 (26,081), but not zero.
When the manifesto was written, 26,081 children were waiting; by the deadline there were 4.6 times fewer. Abe had set the same goal for 2017; then 19,895 children were still waiting.
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Japan’s ruling party promised in an election that every child whose parents want a nursery or kindergarten place would get one. Here is the number of children waiting for a place, year by year.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Liberal Democratic Party, LDP 2017 election manifesto quote
«待機児童解消を達成するため、「子育て安心プラン」を前倒しし、2020年度までに、32万人分の保育の受け皿整備を進めます。» — To eliminate childcare waiting lists, we will bring forward the "Childcare Peace of Mind Plan" and create places for 320,000 children by fiscal 2020.
- What happened did not come true
On 1 April 2021, 5,634 children were waiting — 4.6 times fewer than in 2017 (26,081), but not zero.
Quote: the Liberal Democratic Party’s 2017 manifesto, item 04 (jimin.jp). Fact: the yearly 1 April summary of Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (since 2023, the Children and Families Agency). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The goal “eliminate waiting lists” is in words; the number in the quote is 320,000 new places by fiscal 2020. In 2017 the definition of a waiting child was widened to include some parents on childcare leave. Applications fell in 2020–2021 with the pandemic and falling births.
A question for this picture
Are nursery waiting lists vanishing because there are more places or because there are fewer children?