Japan’s Democrats in 2009: a child allowance of 26,000 yen a month from 2011. They paid 13,000 yen
Democratic Party of Japan27 July 2009 · DPJ 2009 election manifesto
«Create a "child allowance" of 312,000 yen a year (26,000 yen a month) per child until the end of junior high school (half in fiscal 2010).»
In fiscal 2010–2011 the allowance was 13,000 yen a month, half of the promised 26,000; from 2012, 10,000–15,000 yen.
Fact: Министерство здравоохранения, труда и благосостояния Японии, обзор детских пособий
In the first year the party itself planned half. In the second year the allowance stayed at 13,000 yen, and from 2012 the old benefit replaced it, from 10,000 yen a month.
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An opposition party won the 2009 election promising every family an allowance for each child until the end of middle school. It began to pay, but half the promise, and two years later the allowance reverted to its old form.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Democratic Party of Japan, DPJ 2009 election manifesto quote
«中学卒業までの子ども１人当たり年 31 万 2000 円（月額 2 万 6000 円）の「子ども手当」を創設する（平成 22 年度は半額）。» — Create a "child allowance" of 312,000 yen a year (26,000 yen a month) per child until the end of junior high school (half in fiscal 2010).
- What happened did not come true
In fiscal 2010–2011 the allowance was 13,000 yen a month, half of the promised 26,000; from 2012, 10,000–15,000 yen.
Министерство здравоохранения, труда и благосостояния Японии, обзор детских пособий
Quote: the Democratic Party of Japan’s 2009 manifesto. Fact: Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, child benefit rates by fiscal year. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
In 2009 the older benefit of 5,000 to 10,000 yen a month for children under 12 applied. From 2010 the party did not control the upper house; after the 2011 earthquake the allowance was cut in a deal with the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. Since 2012 it pays 10,000–15,000 yen depending on age.
A question for this picture
What decides the fate of an expensive promise: money in the budget or votes in parliament?