Intel’s dates: of 5 promised processors and fabs, 2 came on time; the Ohio fab slipped to the 2030s
- 10 nm by June 2019on time
- 10 nm desktop by 2021on time
- 10 nm server by 20211 year late
- 7 nm by 20211 year late
- Ohio fab by 2025not yet
Of 5 promised processors and fabs, 2 came on time; the Ohio fab slipped to the 2030s.
Laptop and desktop processors came out on the promised dates, the server chips and the first 7 nm product a year late. The Ohio fab was promised for 2025; it is now expected in 2030–2031.
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For years Intel has named dates for processors on new process nodes: the fewer nanometres, the denser the transistors. Here are five such dates, from processors to a new fab, and how many years past each deadline the event came.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- 10 nm server by 2021 — Intel, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened 10 January 2023 (1 years late). Sapphire Rapids server processors officially launched on 10 January 2023 — about a year after the promised second half of 2021.
Intel Newsroom, «4th Gen Intel Xeon Sprints into Market» (14 March 2023)
- 7 nm by 2021 — Intel, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened January 2023 (1 years late). The promised general-purpose GPU (Ponte Vecchio, Intel Data Center GPU Max) launched in January 2023, about a year after the deadline.
Intel, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, Q4 2022 results (26 January 2023)
- Ohio fab by 2025 — Intel, 2022 years past the deadline
promised by 2025; not happened by 11 October 2026. The Ohio fab was not operating in 2025: in February 2025 Intel moved completion of the first module to 2030 and the start of operations to 2030–2031.
Intel Newsroom, «Ohio One Construction Timeline Update» (28 February 2025)
- 10 nm by June 2019 — Intel, 2019 years past the deadline
promised by 2019; happened June 2019 (on time). In its Q2 2019 (April–June) results Intel reported that the 10nm Ice Lake processors were now shipping.
Intel, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, Q2 2019 results (25 July 2019)
- 10 nm desktop by 2021 — Intel, 2020 years past the deadline
promised by 2021; happened 27 October 2021 (on time). Alder Lake desktop processors (12th Gen Core) on Intel 7 — the renamed enhanced 10nm — were launched on 27 October 2021.
Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, Intel investor reports and company press releases. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Nanometres in process names have long not matched transistor size; Intel renamed its enhanced 10 nm process Intel 7. The first 7 nm product was a data centre graphics processor, January 2023.
A question for this picture
Why does the same company ship some processors in the promised quarter and others a year late?