Hydrogen cars: of 5 targets, none was reached on time; China came closest, at 74%
- China: 50,000 cars by 202574%
- Nikola: 300 trucks in 202467%
- California: 200 stations25%
- Korea: 200,000 cars by 202522%
- Japan: 40,000 cars by 202010%
Fact at the deadline, % of the target
Of 5 targets, none was reached on time; China came closest, at 74%.
Japan expected 40,000 hydrogen cars by 2020; there were 4,100. Korea, 200,000 by 2025; there were 44,000. California had about 50 hydrogen stations working by 2025 of the 200 promised.
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A fuel cell car runs on hydrogen and emits only water. Japan, Korea, China and California pushed them, and in the US so did a maker of hydrogen trucks. Here are five targets and how much of each was reached by the deadline.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- China: 50,000 cars by 2025 — NDRC and National Energy Administration of China, 2022 fuel-cell vehicle stock
promised 50,000 by 2025; fact 37,240 (74%). About 37,000 fuel-cell vehicles by end-2025, 74% of 50,000.
- Nikola: 300 trucks in 2024 — Tom Okray, CFO of Nikola, 2024 Tre FCEV trucks shipped in the year
promised 300 by 2024; fact 200 (67%). 200 fuel cell trucks were shipped in 2024 — a third below 300.
- California: 200 stations — Jerry Brown, 2018 public retail hydrogen stations (open or temporarily unavailable)
promised 200 by 2025; fact 50 (25%). About 50 retail hydrogen stations by end-2025, a quarter of 200.
- Korea: 200,000 cars by 2025 — Government of the Republic of Korea, 2020 fuel-cell vehicle stock
promised 200,000 by 2025; fact 44,230 (22%). About 44,000 fuel-cell vehicles by end-2025, 22% of 200,000.
- Japan: 40,000 cars by 2020 — Ministerial Council on Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Related Issues (Japan), 2017 fuel-cell vehicle stock
promised 40,000 by 2020; fact 4,100 (10%). About 4,100 fuel-cell vehicles by end-2020, a tenth of the target.
Targets: verbatim from the hydrogen strategies of Japan and China, Korea’s Green New Deal, the California governor’s order and a Nikola investor call. Fact: International Energy Agency, Global EV Data Explorer, California data and company reports. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Nikola’s forecast is the lower bound of wholesale shipments in the year; the company went bankrupt in 2025. Japan’s target for 2025, 200,000 cars, is a separate card: there were about 8,500.
A question for this picture
Electric cars overtook hydrogen ones: is it the price of the cars, of the stations or of hydrogen itself?