Hubbert in 1956: US oil output will peak about 1970. It peaked in 1970 and was surpassed in 2018
M. King Hubbert8 March 1956 · paper at the American Petroleum Institute, San Antonio
«If we suppose the figure of 150 billion barrels to be 50 billion barrels too low … then the ultimate potential reserve would be 200 billion barrels. … even then the date of culmination is retarded only until about 1970.»
The peak came in 1970; output passed it in 2018.
In 1970 the US produced 9.6 million barrels a day. By 2008 output fell to 5.0 million; with tight oil it rose to 13.7 million in 2025.
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A geophysicist predicted the year after which US oil output would decline. He got the year; half a century later new technology lifted output above the old peak.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the timeline the small dark dot is when it was said, the empty ring the deadline, the ring in the stamp’s colour when it happened; a line in that colour along the axis is the delay, a dashed line to «not yet» means it has not happened by today.
- M. King Hubbert, paper at the American Petroleum Institute, San Antonio quote
«If we suppose the figure of 150 billion barrels to be 50 billion barrels too low … then the ultimate potential reserve would be 200 billion barrels. … even then the date of culmination is retarded only until about 1970.»
Hubbert, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, Shell Publication No. 95, 1956
- What happened came true, then undone
The peak came in 1970; output passed it in 2018.
- 1970 thousand barrels a day
9.64 million barrels a day, the highest until 2018
- 2008 thousand barrels a day
5.00 million
- 2025 thousand barrels a day
13.66 million
Quote: Hubbert’s 1956 paper, pp. 23–24 (Shell Publication No. 95). Fact: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), series MCRFPUS2. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Hubbert named the peak year, not its height: the curve is read by eye and the 1970 fact is higher. Alaska is in the data from 1973. Tight oil was outside his reserve estimate.
A question for this picture
Did the prediction come true if the peak happened and was later surpassed?