1. MigrationHong Kong

   Hong Kong: in 2020–2023 net migration was lower than all 12 UN projections assumed

   The 2022 projection, for example, expected that in 2023 20k more people would arrive than leave; by the UN's current estimate, 3.43k more left than arrived. Projections 1998–2022 are all checked against the same recent years, so they are not 12 independent tests.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• Hong Kong: lower fertility than Italy
• Hong Kong: twice as many people aged 65+ as children under 15
• Hong Kong: more people now die than are born
• Reading at age ten, 2001 to 2021: Singapore +59 points, Netherlands −27
• Hong Kong: national data show 20% fewer births in 2023 than the UN, yet 5% more children per woman
• Hong Kong: all 12 UN projections since 1998 expected women to have more children

All findings →