Hollande in 2012: France’s public debt to fall to 80.2% of GDP by 2017. In 2017 it was 98.8%
François Hollande26 January 2012 · presidential programme "Le changement c'est maintenant. Mes 60 engagements pour la France"
«To control and reduce France's debt, which the right doubled in ten years, I will bring public finances back to balance […] Debt-reduction objective: 2017 — 80.2%.»
For 2017 the pledge was debt of 80.2% of GDP; the outcome was 98.8%, against 91.7% in 2012.
Fact: Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 (дефицит и долг по процедуре EDP), выпуск 22.04.2026
The programme assumed debt of 88.7% of GDP in 2012; current data put it at 91.7%. After that debt rose every year of the term.
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A candidate for President of France put a table into his programme: what public debt would be in each year of the term. Debt did not fall in any year.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- François Hollande, presidential programme "Le changement c'est maintenant. Mes 60 engagements pour la France" quote
«Pour maîtriser et diminuer l'endettement de la France, que la droite a doublé en dix ans, je ramènerai les finances publiques à l'équilibre […] Objectif de désendettement : 2017 — 80,2%.» — To control and reduce France's debt, which the right doubled in ten years, I will bring public finances back to balance […] Debt-reduction objective: 2017 — 80.2%.
- What happened did not come true
For 2017 the pledge was debt of 80.2% of GDP; the outcome was 98.8%, against 91.7% in 2012.
Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 (дефицит и долг по процедуре EDP), выпуск 22.04.2026
Quote: François Hollande’s programme “Change is now. My 60 commitments for France” (2012), pp. 40–41, table “Debt-reduction objective” (web.archive.org copy). Fact: Eurostat, excessive deficit procedure debt (gov_10dd_edpt1). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The quote joins the programme text and a row of its table. The programme counted on growth of 2–2.5% a year from 2015; growth was lower. 2012 debt is higher after revisions than it was thought in 2012.
A question for this picture
Can debt be promised as a share of GDP when GDP itself is not part of the promise?