Goals to lower fertility: 2 of 4 came true on time. Ethiopia: 4.27 children per woman against a target of 3
- Ethiopia: 3 by 20204.27
- India: 2.1 by 20172.19
- Egypt: 3.1 by 20202.85
- Philippines: 2.1 by 20221.9
Children per woman in the deadline year
2 of 4 came true on time. Ethiopia: 4.27 children per woman against a target of 3.
Egypt and the Philippines fell below their targets. India expected 2.1 by 2017 and got there later: 2.19 in 2017 and 2.05 in 2020.
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Not every government wants more births: countries with high fertility set targets to lower it. Here are four such targets beside what came out in the deadline year.
A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.
- Ethiopia: 3 by 2020 — Ministry of Health of Ethiopia, 2015 children per woman
promised 3 by 2020; fact 4 (142%). 2020: 4.27 children per woman (UN estimate) against 3; it fell below 4 only in 2023.
- India: 2.1 by 2017 — Government of India (Manmohan Singh), Planning Commission, 2012 children per woman
promised 2 by 2017; fact 2 (104%). In 2017 the TFR was 2.19 (UN; 2.2 by India's SRS); it fell to 2.1 or below in 2020, at 2.05.
- Egypt: 3.1 by 2020 — Government of Egypt, National Population Council (Minister Hala Youssef), 2015 children per woman
promised 3 by 2020; fact 3 (92%). 2020: 2.85 children per woman (UN estimate) against 3.1.
ООН, World Population Prospects 2024 / UN World Population Prospects 2024
- Philippines: 2.1 by 2022 — Government of the Philippines (Rodrigo Duterte), 2017 children per woman
promised 2 by 2022; fact 2 (90%). The 2022 survey put the total fertility rate at 1.9 children per woman against a 2.1 target.
Philippine Statistics Authority, National Demographic and Health Survey 2022
Targets: verbatim from the development and health plans of Ethiopia, India and the Philippines and from the target table of Egypt’s National Population Strategy 2015–2030. Fact: UN estimates (Ethiopia, India, Egypt) and the 2022 survey (the Philippines). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
Egypt’s strategy took its baseline of 3.5 children from a national survey, while the fact is a UN estimate; fertility there was falling before the strategy too. Ethiopian surveys give lower numbers than the UN (4.1 in 2019), but the target is missed by them too. India’s Sample Registration System and the UN differ by hundredths. The Philippine survey covers the three years before it; the fall coincided with the pandemic. The data do not show that the plans caused the falls.
A question for this picture
What lowers fertility more: government plans or how family life changes?