Colombia: DANE projected the population better than the UN — in 3 of 4 pairs of projections
Projections from nearby years, checked against DANE's latest estimate. The three latest pairs: national office in blue, UN in orange. Below zero means fewer people than projected.
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Each national projection against the UN revision of the same years, both against DANE's latest estimate. For example, for 2020: DANE 2007 expected 50.9M (actual 1% below the projection), the UN 2006 projection 53.2M (actual 5.3% below the projection); the estimate is 50.4M (the UN's 2024 estimate: 50.6M).
Error = (estimate / projection − 1) × 100%. Each pair uses its latest common year; years can differ between pairs. The front shows the three latest pairs; all comparisons are below.
- DANE 1998 → 2015
53.2M → 46.3M; −12.92%
- UN 1998 → 2015
53.2M → 46.3M; −12.92%
- DANE estimates (30 June) · 2015
46.3M
- DANE 2007 → 2020
50.9M → 50.4M; −1.02%
- UN 2006 → 2020
53.2M → 50.4M; −5.35%
- DANE estimates (30 June) · 2020
50.4M
- DANE 2020 → 2025
53.2M → 53.1M; −0.3%
- UN 2019 → 2025
52M → 53.1M; 2.02%
- DANE estimates (30 June) · 2025
53.1M
- DANE 2023 → 2025
53.1M → 53.1M; −0.1%
- UN 2022 → 2025
52.6M → 53.1M; 0.85%
- DANE estimates (30 June) · 2025
53.1M
Use the central national scenario and the nearest UN edition, from one year before to two years after publication. Require at least three pairs; an absolute-error advantage of 0.5 percentage point counts as a win. Select countries where one side wins at least 75% of pairs.
The latest estimate can itself be revised. Nearby projections are not independent trials; this is not a general ranking of institutions. Countries with national and UN population counts over 3% apart are excluded, but a smaller difference does not prove identical definitions.
A question for this picture
Will the comparison change after the next population revision?