China: in 2026 people aged 65 and over will outnumber children under 15 for the first time
214 million against 209 million, by the UN's estimate. In 1990 there were 5.4 children for every older person; by 2035 there will be 2.4 older people for every child: 313 million against 131 million.
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A country where 35 years ago there were five children for every older person is crossing the line: older people now outnumber children. The gap then grows fast — fewer children because fewer are born, more older people because the large cohorts of the 1960s reach that age.
Lines: children under 15 and people aged 65+, millions. Solid: UN estimates to 2023; dashed: the medium variant. The dot marks the crossing.
- China: children under 15 million
1990: 332; 2026: 209; 2035: 131
UN World Population Prospects 2024: children under 15 and people 65+ (estimates and medium variant)
- China: people 65+ million
1990: 62; 2026: 214; 2035: 313
UN World Population Prospects 2024: children under 15 and people 65+ (estimates and medium variant)
UN World Population Prospects 2024: sums of five-year groups 0–14 and 65+ on 1 July. The same calculation elsewhere: United States 2024, South Korea 2016, Japan 1997, India 2056.
2026 and 2035 are the UN medium variant, not a census. The crossing hardly depends on errors in births: in 2024 more children were born than the UN expected, in 2025 fewer. China's statistics count age groups differently; their figures are not mixed with the UN's.
A question for this picture
And the young entering work? Their unemployment rose above the world average.