China in 2020: electric cars to be about 20% of new car sales by 2025. They were 53%
General Office of the State Council of China2 November 2020 · NEV industry development plan for 2021–2035
«by 2025… sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of total new vehicle sales»
In 2025 EVs were 53% of new car sales; 20% was passed in 2022.
The goal was passed three years early: 29% in 2022. In 2019, before the plan, it was 5%.
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China supports «new energy vehicles» (electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen) with subsidies and quotas. In the industry plan for 2021–2035 the government named their share of sales by 2025. Here is what it turned out to be.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- General Office of the State Council of China, NEV industry development plan for 2021–2035 quote
«到2025年……新能源汽车新车销售量达到汽车新车销售总量的20%左右» — by 2025… sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of total new vehicle sales
- What happened exceeded
In 2025 EVs were 53% of new car sales; 20% was passed in 2022.
Goal: the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan 2021–2035, General Office of the State Council, 2 November 2020. Fact: International Energy Agency, Global EV Data Explorer (EV share of car sales). Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The goal is for all new vehicles; the series is for cars. Hydrogen vehicles are «new energy» too, but their share is small.
A question for this picture
The goal was beaten two and a half times over: was it set cautiously, or did the market change faster than expected?