China in 2009: electric cars and hybrids to be about 5% of car sales by 2011. They were 0.03%
State Council of China20 March 2009 · automotive industry revitalization plan for 2009–2011
«build capacity for 500,000 new energy vehicles — battery-electric, plug-in and ordinary hybrids; NEV sales to be about 5% of total passenger car sales»
In 2011 EVs were 0.03% of car sales; 5% was reached in 2019.
The 5% share came eight years after the deadline, in 2019. By 2025 it was more than half of sales.
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In the 2009 crisis China adopted a plan to revive the car industry and for the first time named a share of «new energy vehicles» in sales. Here is the share of electric and plug-in hybrid cars in car sales.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- State Council of China, automotive industry revitalization plan for 2009–2011 quote
«形成50万辆纯电动、充电式混合动力和普通型混合动力等新能源汽车产能，新能源汽车销量占乘用车销售总量的5%左右» — build capacity for 500,000 new energy vehicles — battery-electric, plug-in and ordinary hybrids; NEV sales to be about 5% of total passenger car sales
- What happened late
In 2011 EVs were 0.03% of car sales; 5% was reached in 2019.
Goal: the Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalisation Plan 2009–2011, State Council, 20 March 2009. Fact: International Energy Agency, Global EV Data Explorer. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The goal included ordinary hybrids, which are not in the series; their sales in China in 2011 were small too, but there is no exact official figure here. The next goal of the same kind, 20% by 2025, was beaten: that is a separate card.
A question for this picture
Why did the same country first miss a goal a hundredfold and then beat the next one?