1. ForecastsBenin

   Benin: older UN projections expected too little, the 2022 one too much

   Projections from 1998 to 2017 missed one way. The UN's 1998 projection expected 3.83 for 2015–2020; the outcome was 5.08 (+33%). The UN's 2022 projection expected 4.82 for 2023; the outcome was 4.56 (−5%). "Outcome" here is the UN's own current estimate, not registration data.

   Source: UN World Population Prospects 1998–2024; national statisticsOpen on the chart →

More findings

• Benin: more babies born than in Italy
• Benin: since 2015 fertility has been falling 2.7 times faster, from 5.32 to 4.56 children per woman
• The IMF foresaw 28 of 537 economic downturns around the world a year ahead
• 2022: the IMF expected inflation above 5% in 43 countries. It happened in 149
• Before 7 of 8 US recessions, next-quarter GDP decline odds were below 25%
• US: in 2001 a $5.6T budget surplus was projected for 10 years. The outcome: a $6.1T deficit

All findings →