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  1. Science and spaceUnited States

    Americans’ return to the Moon: of 8 named dates, 1 came true on time, the crewed lunar flyby of April 2026

    • Bush: Moon landing by 2020not yet
    • Pence: Moon landing by 2024not yet
    • Obama: deep space by 2025not yet
    • Bush: crewed ship by 201411.2 years late
    • NASA: SLS by 20184 years late
    • NASA: lunar flyby by 20232.3 years late
    • NASA: flyby by Sept 20250.5 years late
    • NASA: flyby by April 2026on time
    Did it come true?Came true: 1 of 8

    Of 8 named dates, 1 came true on time, the crewed lunar flyby of April 2026.

    Bush: Moon landing by 2020not yetPence: Moon landing by 2024not yetObama: deep space by 2025not yetBush: crewed ship by 201411.2 years lateNASA: SLS by 20184 years lateNASA: lunar flyby by 20232.3 years lateNASA: flyby by Sept 20250.5 years lateNASA: flyby by April 2026on time

    Bush promised a new crewed ship for lunar flights by 2014; it flew with a crew 11.2 years after the deadline. The landing promised by 2020 and by 2024 had not happened by October 2026.

    Source: Quotes from primary sources, facts from official statistics (links on the back)Open on the chart →
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    Since 2004 US presidents have set NASA lunar and deep-space goals three times, and the agency itself has named dates for the first flights of its new rocket and ship more than once. Here are eight such dates and how many years after each passed before the event.

    A row is one promise: who, what and by when. The question is whether at least half came true. Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: each row gets its outcome and what actually came of it, the card a stamp counting those that came true. Quotes and links to the facts are below.

    Promises: verbatim from the primary sources, presidential speeches, vice-presidential remarks, NASA press releases and reports. The date of the event is from a primary source, linked on the back for each row. The delay is counted from the end of the promised period: «by 2020» from the end of 2020, «in October» from the end of October. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.

    The crewed lunar flyby (Artemis II) was moved three times; the last date, named a year and a half ahead, held. The ship Bush promised later became Orion; its first crewed flight is the same flyby on 1 April 2026. Obama promised a crewed flight to an asteroid; there have been no flights beyond the Moon yet.

    A question for this picture

    Why do dates named a year or so ahead come true, and dates named ten years ahead do not?

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