Abe’s cabinet in 2014: as many to leave the Tokyo area as arrive by 2020. The net inflow was 98k
Government of Japan (Shinzo Abe)27 December 2014 · Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalising Local Economy, Cabinet decision
«As a result, balance moves out of the Tokyo area to the regions and moves into it by 2020»
The goal was to balance moves out and in by 2020; in 2020 inflow to the Tokyo area exceeded outflow by 98,000, against 96,500 in 2013.
Fact: Статистическое бюро Японии, «住民基本台帳人口移動報告» 2020 (参考表1) и 2024 (表20)
In the year of the decision arrivals exceeded departures by 109.4k people, in 2019 by 145.6k. After a dip in the pandemic the gap is growing again.
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Young Japanese move to Tokyo and the neighbouring prefectures while the provinces empty. The government decided that by 2020 flows into and out of the capital area would even out. Here is how many more people arrived than left each year.
First the words: who said it, when and where, verbatim (translations are ours). Answer Yes or No, or just open the answer: the stamp is the outcome, below it what came of it. On the chart the dark line is the fact year by year up to the deadline, the pale one after it; the blue dashed line is the promised number from the year of the words to the deadline, the light band the time the promise gave; the ring on the line is when it was said, the ring in the stamp’s colour the fact in the deadline year, beside it how far it landed from the goal. The numbers on the right are the scale.
- Government of Japan (Shinzo Abe), Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalising Local Economy, Cabinet decision quote
«■上記により、2020 年時点で東京圏から地方への転出・転入を均衡» — As a result, balance moves out of the Tokyo area to the regions and moves into it by 2020
Кабинет министров Японии, «まち・ひと・しごと創生総合戦略» (27.12.2014), PDF chisou.go.jp
- What happened did not come true
The goal was to balance moves out and in by 2020; in 2020 inflow to the Tokyo area exceeded outflow by 98,000, against 96,500 in 2013.
Статистическое бюро Японии, «住民基本台帳人口移動報告» 2020 (参考表1) и 2024 (表20)
Quote: the «Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy», cabinet decision of 27 December 2014 (chisou.go.jp). Fact: Statistics Bureau of Japan, report on internal migration from the Basic Resident Register. Outcome: «came true» — the promised number reached by the deadline («about» within 5%), an event happened before the end of the year promised; «exceeded» — with room to spare; «nearly» — short by no more than 10%; «late» — reached, but after the deadline; «did not come true» — not reached; «came true, then undone» — reached, then reversed. The deadline is the end of the year named.
The capital area is Tokyo and the prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa. The peak was 145.6 thousand in 2019; in 2020–2021 the inflow fell during the pandemic. In December 2019 the second strategy moved the goal to fiscal 2024; in 2024 the inflow was 119.3 thousand.
A question for this picture
Can a government turn the flow of people to the capital if jobs move there too?