Births exceeded a reference path after 42 of 101 wars
1–5 years after a war, births were 1.6% below what the pre-war trend and peace-time countries with similar fertility suggested (median). Above that after 42 of 101 wars. During the war −0.6%, 6–10 years after −2.7%.
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For every war since 1955, births in the country were compared with what could be expected: its pre-war course extended and adjusted for how births moved in 10 peace-time countries with similar fertility. Shown is the middle (median) across all wars.
Bars: the median deviation of births from the expected in each period; left means fewer than expected.
- War episodes
101 / 60
Wars: UCDP/PRIO; births: UN estimates. A war episode is the years of a conflict with 1,000 or more deaths a year; a country can have several. The count is descriptive: episodes in one country are not independent, and a non-significant test would not prove no effect.
A pre-war course extended for years is a rough expectation. Births in countries at war are UN model estimates.
A question for this picture
Does the result hold with different comparison countries and pre-war windows?