United Kingdom: in October 2007 the Treasury expected borrowing of £31bn for fiscal 2009/10. The outcome: £160bn
United Kingdom: public borrowing, £ bn, fiscal 2009/10
5.1 times the forecast: the 2008–09 crisis sank revenues and raised spending. A forecast for that year came out 12 times.
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HM Treasury (until 2010) and the OBR publish a forecast of the economy and public borrowing with each Budget. Borrowing is the gap between public spending and revenue over the fiscal year (April–March).
Across: when each forecast came out. Blue: the forecasts for fiscal 2009/10 in each edition; orange: the outcome. The shading is the error.
- HM Treasury, December 2004
£22bn
- HM Treasury, March 2005
£22bn
- HM Treasury, December 2005
£23bn
- HM Treasury, March 2006
£24bn
- HM Treasury, December 2006
£26bn
- HM Treasury, March 2007
£28bn
- HM Treasury, October 2007
£31bn
- HM Treasury, March 2008
£38bn
- HM Treasury, November 2008
£118bn
- HM Treasury, April 2009
£175bn
- HM Treasury, November 2009
£178bn
- HM Treasury, March 2010
£167bn
- Outcome: fiscal 2009/10
£160bn
The largest misses of a next-year forecast (without the pandemic years 2020–2021); for borrowing, the forecast made one or two years before the fiscal year with the largest overshoot in pounds. Outcome: OBR outturn as available at the March 2026 forecast.
The card does not say the forecast was worse than others: in 2008–09 almost everyone missed the same way. It shows how far reality can move from an official expectation in a single year.
A question for this picture
Could this have been seen a year ahead, and what should one have done with the forecast?