UK: the “technical recession” of 2023 was found after the fact
UK: quarterly GDP growth (on the previous quarter)
First estimates showed no run of decline (on the previous quarter): 0.0%, −0.3%. Now: −0.2%, −0.3%.
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A “technical recession” is often taken to mean two quarters of falling GDP in a row. It is not the official dating of recessions, but it makes the news and moves markets. Statisticians publish a quarter’s first estimate a month later from incomplete data and revise it for years.
Blue: the first estimate of each quarter’s growth; orange: the same quarter’s estimate now. Dots mark the episode’s quarters. The dashed line is zero: below it the economy shrinks.
- Q3 2023: first estimate → now % q/q
0.0% (2023-11) → −0.2%
- Q4 2023: first estimate → now % q/q
−0.3% (2024-02) → −0.3%
First estimate: the first published growth of the quarter; latest: data as of 2026-09-30. Growth on the previous quarter, as the national office publishes it. An episode: two or more quarters of negative growth in a row in one version of the data and no such run in the other.
Part of every revision is new data (tax records, surveys), part is new seasonal adjustment and methods. Revisions go both ways; first estimates of declines are more often softened later, yet the start of the 2008 crisis was underestimated at first in all three countries.
A question for this picture
How many decisions (rates, budgets, elections) are made on figures that later change sign?